MODEL MATEMATIKA SEIRD (SUSCEPTIBLE, EXPOSED, INFECTED, RECOVERED, DAN DEATH) UNTUK PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT ISPA

Yuni Yulida, Muhammad Ahsar Karim

Abstract


In the last few decades, the Upper Respiratory Tract Infection has become one of the three leading causes of death and disability in the world, both in developing countries and in developed countries. In Indonesia, the trend of this disease continues to increase throughout 2016 - 2019 and in children it has caused 1 - 4 children under five to die every hour. In this study, the spread of this disease was modeled mathematically by using the SEIRD Model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Death). Then, the equilibrium points of the model are determined, stability analysis is performed, and the model solution is determined using the Runge Kutta Method

Keywords


SEIRD Model, Acute respiratory infection (ISPA), Equilibrium, Stability Analysis & Runga Kutta Method

Full Text:

PDF

References


Anton, H. 1994. Aljabar Linier Elementer, Edisi kelima. Erlangga. Jakarta.

Bellomo, N. & L. Preziosi. 1995. Modelling Mathematical Method and Scientific Computation. CRC Press, Florida

Braun, M. 1992. Differential Equation and Their Applications-Fourth Edition. Springer-Verlag. New York.

CNN Indonesia. 2019. Penderita ISPA Akibat Karhutla Tembus 919 Ribu Orang. https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20190923160933-20-433052/penderita-ispa-akibat-karhutla-tembus-919-ribu-orang. Akses: 5 November 2019

Driessche, P & Watmough, J. 2005. Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission. Mathematical Bioscience. Math. Biosci. 177&178, 317-332.

Forum of International Respiratory Societies. 2017. The Global Impact of Respiratory Disease - Second Edition. Sheffi eld, European Respiratory Society. ISBN: 9781849840873; e-ISBN: 9781849840880.

Karim, M.A. and Gunawan, A.Y. (2020). Parameter Estimations of Fuzzy Forced Duffing Equation: Numerical Performances by the Extended Runge-Kutta Method. Abstract and Applied Analysis, Vol. 2020 (Article ID 6179591), 9 Pages.

Madsen, K. et.al. 2004. Methods for Non-Linear Least Squares Problems 2nd Edition. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling. Denmark.

Palgunadi, S. & Herlambang, T. 2014. Simulasi Penyebaran Penyakit ISPA Pada Balita di Kota Surakarta Menggunakan Game of Life. Prosiding SNST ke-5 Fakultas Teknik Universitas Wahid Hasyim Semarang.

Perko, L. 1991. Differential Equation and Dynamical systems. Text in Apllied Mathematic vol 7. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.

Yulida, Y., Faisal & Karim, M.A. 2011. Analisis Kestabilan Global Model Epidemik SIRS Menggunakan Fungsi Lyapunov. Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Terapan Epsilon, Vol. 5 No. 2, Hal. 31-42, ISBN: 19784422.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.33758/mbi.v15i7.1037

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


____________________________________________
MEDIA BINA ILMIAH
ISSN 1978-3787 (print) | 2615-3505( online)
Published by BINA PATRIA | Email: laloemipa@gmail.com

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 

View My Stats