ANALISA PELAKSANAAN NEW NORMAL DI KALIMANTAN SELATAN MELALUI MODEL MATEMATIKA SIRD

Abstract

Mathematical models of epidemiology are very useful in studying the interrelationships among various epidemiological cases, conducting evaluations of efforts to deal with these cases, and preparing preventive actions and control of health problems in a population. One of the most popular models is SIR Model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered). Along with the rapid development in the field of epidemiology, the SIR Model has also undergone many modifications, one of which is the SIRD Model. The SIRD Model is modified for cases that explicitly separate Recovered and Deaths subpopulations. Since the positive case of Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) was first confirmed in the Province of South Borneo on March 22, 2020, this outbreak has continued to increase significantly until the end of May 2020, exactly where the Large-scale Social Restrictions simultaneously ended throughout the region. The end of this restriction is the starting point for the start of 'New Normal' in South Kalimantan, which is called the New Life Order in the midst of the Covid-19 outbreak. In this study, an analysis was conducted to measure the implementation of the New Normal in South Borneo, as part of the evaluation material for the community and the local government on the implementation of the New Normal. Analysis was conducted using the SIRD Model and the data of Covid-19 in South Borneo in the period June 16 to July 17, 2020. The data showed an increase in the Attack Rate, which illustrates that the positive cases of Covid-19 in South Borneo are still experiencing an increase. The data also shows an increase in the Case Recovery Rate and a decrease in the Case Fatality Rate, which indicates that efforts to accelerate the handling of Covid-19 cases in South Borneo have given positive results. On the other hand, the parameter estimation process of the SIRD Model produces a Basic Reproduction Number of 2 and an Effective Reproductive Number of 1.82. Both of these numbers indicate that the transmission of Covid-19 in South Borneo is still out of control and it is estimated that the high transmission will still occur until the end of August 2020